Cowboys Thanksgiving Spread: Market Does Not Think These Teams Are Close

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daniel jones

It’s hard not to be giddy about this.

That’s the sentiment fans gush over and bettors try to be wary of when the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants at -9 according to DraftKings on Thanksgiving Day.

How could one not be excited about Dallas’ 40-3 dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday? The same Vikings who entered with an eight-game win streak and a victory over the Super Bowl-favored Buffalo Bills?

How could one not be caught up in the Zeke Elliott return and two TDs both for Elliott and Tony Pollard?

The turning point was the kickoff.

The ‘Boys not only played their best game in at least a couple of seasons but gave the performance that would have beaten every team in the NFL on that day.

Now, what about this one?

The ‘Boys are 7-3  overall and 2-1 against the NFC East, including a road victory over the Giants.

Here’s an early betting overview.

Cowboys-Giants Betting Options

  1. The public believes the -9 number is about where this game belongs. The DraftKings bettors favor New York with a 54% handle at that number.  That could be where this game levels off. It opened at Dallas -8.5 and ‘Boys bettors drove it up to nine.
  1. If one believes the line is right where it should be and there’s no edge, here are some other considerations.

How many points will the Cowboys score? The over-under is 27.5. The Over is +105 and the Under is -125.

How many touchdowns will the Cowboys score? The over-under is 3.5 with the Over trending at +140 and the Under at  -180. 

The sentiment appears to be that the Giants’ defense isn’t as vulnerable as it looked in their 31-18 home setback to the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Chance to Collect An Early Payday

What will happen on the Cowboys’ first drive? A score is +100 and no score is -120.

What will be the specific result of Dallas’ first possession?

A field goal attempt is +380. A touchdown is +175. Anything else, namely a punt, turnover on downs or a turnover, is +550.

Because Pollard notched two receiving touchdowns on Sunday, a prop went up at DraftKings for this game. Can Pollard notch 75 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards? Odds are he gets one. But two? If you take that and it’s right, it pays +350.

When books list props in which two or three things need to happen, it can become a cross-referencing handicapping tool. If three things need to occur, two usually will. A bettor’s challenge is to figure out which of the two may come out and tailor other bets around that.

Other Props

Will each team score one touchdown and one field goal in each half? It pays +2000 at DraftKings. 

One can see the chance if this becomes a wide-open holiday game that stays close.

The Giants, ironically, were the only NFL team not to get a field goal in Week 11. Odds say they are due and everybody already knows about Brett Maher’s leg. He kicked two 60-yard field goals on successive plays last week, because a booth review negated the first one.

What will the first score of the game be?

  • New York touchdown +380
  • New York field goal +425
  • New York safety +5500
  • Dallas touchdown  +120
  • Dallas field goal +320
  • Dallas safety +7500

Some Bets Here Mentioned Last Week That Paid Off

The Over on the Cowboys’ 24 points against the Vikings paid +100. The ‘Boys had 23 points by halftime and tallied 40. The principle here: if you have an angle on any prop, it pays just as much as having the line correctly.

Would the touchdown yardage of the game be more than 80 yards? This is a fun wager you play for enjoyment besides profit. And Pollard handled this by himself with 98 yards of touchdown yardage. 

What’s interesting about this bet is one would figure that CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson would provide the long-scoring plays.

Why you keep this bet low: Elliott had two one-yard touchdowns. And if Pollard gets tackled at the 1-yard line in any of his two TD runs, this bet fails by a mile.

Well, that prop is up again. This time the total of touchdown yardage is 76.5. The Over and Under are both -110. 

Will there be a two-point conversion? Yes is +330.

The total field goals over-under is 3.5. This is a standard NFL number. The prop pays  +125 on the Over and -165 on the Under.  An Over wager boils down to the belief that there will be one at the end of the first half and that the game will stay close enough to warrant field goals.

This area has become a little trickier in the age of new analytics. The number of two-point conversions and extra-point misses has made this a little more difficult to predict.

Watch the Board

As game-time approaches, you will see props on Dak Prescott, Elliott, Pollard, Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, among others, for scoring or yardage props.

What’s a good problem for the Cowboys is a difficult one for bettors. Dallas has an abundance of weapons. Who hits paydirt individually will be determined by matchups.

Daniel Jones is always a threat to run one in for the Giants. He did last week. Saquon Barkley’s props are always interesting. He’s been a key to the Giants offense. He could not get going last week. The Giants will try to get him involved early.

Futures Consideration

The ‘Boys took a gigantic surge in Super Bowl respect, going up to +900 according to DraftKings. That’s good news for the team, but not necessarily for bettors, who can’t get the same deal on Dallas as in past weeks.

Value remains in the NFC East. The Cowboys are +300, reflecting the fact they trail the Philadelphia Eagles by two games and lost once to them already. With Philly wobbling to a 17-16 win over Indianapolis, some bettors may believe the ‘Boys can make up one game prior to facing Philadelphia here on Dec. 24 and win that one.

Division betting, regardless of whether it’s the NFC East, often provides value. There are good values with teams just off the pace.