Dallas fans may be disgruntled that the Cowboys did not progress further in the NFL playoffs.
But bettors were not.
They cashed tickets on the Cowboys surpassing their over-under mandate of 10 wins. And many gamblers who picked the Cowboys to exit the post-season in the second round pocketed money.
As the off-season beckons, there’s a comfort zone in betting this team. Gamblers remain able to back the fact that the Cowboys are usually going to make the playoffs and leave early.
That’s money for those who bet the trend.
How should that money be spread in 2023?
With the off-season approaching, here are some early wagering considerations on the Futures market.
Cowboys Super Bowl odds next year
Bettors who observe the Cowboys 2024 Super Bowl odds +1400 (DraftKings) to win the Super Bowl next year, the sixth-highest in football, don’t have to lunge at that bet. The ‘Boys don’t have much room to move higher.
Dallas is already placed in the realm of where it finished the season, reaching the level of the Top 8 teams. Its 12-5 season was a good one, but how much higher can this team go?
|Team||Super Bowl Oddds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|San Francisco 49ers||+700|
|New York Jets||+1400|
|Green Bay Packers||+3500|
|New Orleans Saints||+3500|
|New York Giants||+4000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+4000|
|New England Patriots||+6000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+6500|
For Dallas to progress higher, here is the mandate:
It must improve enough to overtake the favored Kansas City Chiefs at +550. Or the Buffalo Bills at +700, the San Francisco 49ers at +750 and the Philadelphia Eagles at +850. The Cincinnati Bengals come next and then it’s Dallas.
Just below the Cowboys are the Los Angeles Chargers at +2200. That’s a big dropoff to a team that made the post-season before choking up a 27-0 lead and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And the Jags are +3000. They beat the Cowboys during the regular season.
The relative strength of the Chargers and Jags, relative to the Cowboys, suggests this Dallas Futures line should be lower.
But something continually raises the expectations bar for Dallas. No matter that the ‘Boys haven’t won the NFC championship in 27 years, nor captured two playoff victories in one post-season since 1995. They remain high-profile magnets.
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told HowBoutThem.
“Ever since they were called America’s team, they get a lot of ink.
“People know about them more. If I gave you some other teams, like the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts, you would say that Dallas has four times as much exposure as those teams combined.”
That in turn impacts public interest and betting support, as it has for decades.
From Tom Landry to Dandy Don, Troy Aikman to Emmitt Smith and now Dak Prescott to Zeke Elliott, Dallas always sports marquee players. And a high-profile owner.
Jerry Jones is front and center, visible and usually over-extended into team affairs.
The NFL loves to isolate Dallas in late-afternoon and prime-time matchups. Sportsbooks love when the ‘Boys are in an isolated, or “island” game with no other competing games.
Compound the notoriety with the attention of Mattress Mack losing a whopping $2 million when Dallas was knocked from the playoffs by the Niners.
The Cowboys make news. That’s why their on-field performance will often chase short-priced odds.
The trick for bettors is sensing where the team’s true ability lies.
“This team is capable of winning it every year. They will probably go out and get enough talent to compete again, but something is wrong with the chemistry of this organization. They have a lot of talent, but something is missing.”
Both parts of his statement are true.
One, they have talent. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz form the nucleus of one of the league’s best offensive teams.
Lamb is playing like the No. 1 pick he was drafted to be. His terrific season included 107 catches, 1.359 yards, nine touchdowns and the deep-threat aura he gave the Cowboys. He’s maybe half a notch below Justin Jefferson, the league’s top receiver, but that’s it.
Pollard has come into his own in the backfield, Schultz is a sure-handed, below-the-radar star at tight end and then there’s that defense. It is elite and may be the reason the Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds are not higher.
But until they prove they can win at the highest level, they will remain on the second tier of contenders.